000 WTNT32 KNHC 021440 TCPAT2
BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024
…BERYL CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA… …EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…15.3N 68.9W ABOUT 235 MI…375 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 555 MI…895 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…938 MB…27.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
- Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
- South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault
- Grand Cayman
- Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
- South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti
- South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings will be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 68.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more toward the west on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the central Caribbean Sea today and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. The center is forecast to approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday night.
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast later today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane intensity as it moves into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 938 mb (27.70 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola later today.
Hurricane conditions could begin on Thursday across the Cayman Islands.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica and the southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 10 inches across the Barahona Peninsula in southwest Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and mudslides.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so. Swells are expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Beven