• 4 Posts
  • 1.79K Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: June 15th, 2023

help-circle






  • The issue (before Thursday) was that the anti-Biden wing of the party couldn’t really demonstrate that the alternatives had any better shot of beating Trump at all. All the reasonable alternatives backed out of any major 2024 challenge precisely because they are young and can wait until 2028 (or even later!) to make their push. Once Biden announced for 2024, it took a lot of the momentum out of finding any Democratic challenger.

    There is an assumption, though, that the person Democrats are nominating in 2024 is the same man who beat Trump in 2020. I don’t think we can make that assumption anymore. Biden had his chance to demonstrate that and blew it. He doesn’t get that many more chances. If he continues to blow them, then Trump wins by default. No Democrat wants that.


  • There is a third scenario which this article doesn’t address. The President has a natural understudy whose only job (other than to show up to the Senate a few times a year) is to take over in case a President can’t do his job anymore. So why are we all acting like it’s some big wildcard?

    If any President had a major medical, condition – say, a stroke or heart attack – during a campaign it might be prudent for them to back out not just from the campaign but from the office itself. In that case, there is no question who takes over the ticket because it will be the new incumbent President.

    Now, we all know Biden didn’t have any major medical episode. All he has is a sudden case of notgonnawinitis, complicated by inflammation of the opeds. But if he came out next week and said “I had a minor medical issue two days before the debate, my doctors said I would recover fully at the time but now they are not so sure, so I need to back out of all of it”, don’t you think the entire party would immediately (and enthusiastically!) hand the reins off to the vice-president, once they remember who she is?






  • Cognitive ability alone is not the whole story, the ability to be persuasive and communicate well is also a key point. I watched the whole debate, and Biden did not communicate well at all. He started out lousy, got a bit better in the middle, but then fell off the wagon again. I think if he had finished strong it would be a lot different.

    Age is a key concern because it will affect everyone. Not every 80 year old is diminished, and not everyone has that mental decline before their physical decline accellerates. But we all end up in the same place, in the end. So his age is the one concern that Biden can’t counteract with a policy change or an executive order. All he can do is show us what he has. And he simply didn’t deliver, even after all his debate prep.


  • I honestly don’t think Biden is incapable. I think that he still showed a deep understanding of the issues facing the country. His stutter (which he has always had) showed up in force, and he was definitely far less articulate than Trump. I think he can still lead a White House staff that, working together, will get it all done.

    He’s been running for President (on and off) since the Reagan era. We know what he used to be capable of in a debate. He is not the same man. Trump, for all his flaws, is a known quantity. His mannerisms, childish as they are, haven’t changed since 2016 (or, indeed, since First Grade.-

    I also acknowledge that it is a lot easier for Trump to sound confident, because he doesn’t worry about actually being correct, or grounded at all in the same reality the rest of us share.

    So while he can do the job, I have serious doubts that enough people can look past that performance to give him the margin he needs. Being President is a tough job, and I think it’s reasonable to not have to make excuses for how the guy in office explains his positions.


  • You’re right, I’m being a bit disengenuous there. But I’m trying to draw a line between the typical GeNoCiDe JoE nonsense that some people push here, and what is going on now. There are a lot of well-meaning progressives who get caught up in that, not realizing their movement does nothing productive for anyone they claim to support. They may as well be tankies, in regards to their effect on what happens in the election.

    Any replacement for Biden will not be more progressive, and in fact will be more centrist to try and win back that middle voter. Progressives can’t say “I won’t back Harris either, she likes cops too much” and not be part of the problem.

    Even after all this, I still have confidence in Biden as a leader, and will vote for him if he remains on the ballot. But I now have much more severe doubts about his electability than I did on Wednesday.


  • This is getting down voted here, but it shouldn’t be just because some people disagree. The NYT editorial board coming out with this is a Big Deal. It has the potential to change the race. A lot of influential people still read it.

    Key Democratic leaders have been lining up to support Biden, but of course they will. He is their guy. We don’t know what private conversations are happening, though. If Biden can be convinced to drop out, all these people who are defending his decision to stay in now will defend his decision to back out.

    No matter how many op-eds people write, though, Biden will stay in the game unless two things happen:

    1. his polls take a further nosedive – but even then he may be convinced he can make that up

    2. his donors dry up.

    Even if Biden drops out, all the tankies here need to accept the fact that the Democratic nominee will not be some progressive darling who will stop shipping arms to Israel. It will be whats-her-name, and the entire party will expect us all to get behind her. Get over yourselves. Hold your nose and vote for her, no matter how much she loves cops.

    And he’s not getting fired at the convention. The only off-ramp for Biden is if he backs out entirely. That means formally resigning and giving whats-her-name not only a campaign, but a country to run. Good luck!